In 2018, Yu Liang, Chairman of the Board of China Vanke, shocked the real estate industry by urging his company to ‘survive’ during an internal meeting. At a time when China’s property market was still near its peak, Yu had already sensed growing risks from tightening regulations, stricter financing conditions, and an impending market downturn. He emphasized returning to fundamentals, reducing leverage, and strengthening cash flow management—a warning widely seen as a pivotal signal for developers to adopt more conservative strategies. However, amid the sector’s deep structural adjustment in recent years, even relatively prudent firms like Vanke have faced declining sales and shrinking profits, despite avoiding the debt crises that plagued many peers. Some observers now argue that ‘those who first called for survival are the first to exit,’ suggesting that even early warnings cannot fully shield companies from systemic industry-wide turmoil. This view acknowledges Yu Liang’s foresight while highlighting the immense challenges facing the entire real estate sector. Yu himself has repeatedly stated that the industry has entered a ‘black iron age,’ where only long-term thinking, product quality, and service excellence can help companies weather the storm.
2018年，万科董事会主席郁亮在一次内部会议上提出‘活下去’的口号，引发行业震动。彼时中国房地产市场尚处高位，但郁亮已敏锐察觉到政策收紧、融资趋严与市场下行的风险。他强调企业应回归基本盘，控制杠杆，提升现金流管理能力。这一预警被视为房企转向保守策略的重要信号。然而，随着近年来房地产行业深度调整，许多高负债企业陷入困境，而万科虽保持相对稳健，却也面临销售下滑、利润压缩等挑战。近期有观点认为，‘率先喊活下去的人先行离场’，意指郁亮虽早有预判，但在行业系统性风险面前，即便是最谨慎的企业也难以独善其身。这既是对郁亮战略前瞻性的肯定，也折射出当前地产行业整体转型之艰难。郁亮本人亦多次表示，行业已进入‘黑铁时代’，唯有坚持长期主义、提升产品力与服务能力，才能穿越周期。
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