Recently, global investment bank Goldman Sachs announced an upward revision to its forecast for London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices in the first half of 2024. The firm previously projected an average price of $8,500 per tonne but has now raised its estimate to $9,200. This adjustment is primarily driven by accelerating global energy transition efforts, constrained copper supply growth, and persistently low inventory levels.Goldman Sachs noted that surging investments in electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure, and power grid upgrades are significantly boosting copper demand. At the same time, major copper-producing countries like Chile and Peru face challenges such as declining ore grades, community protests, and policy uncertainties, which have slowed the ramp-up of new mining capacity. Additionally, LME copper inventories have fallen to multi-year lows, intensifying concerns over near-term supply tightness.Analysts emphasized that despite lingering global economic downside risks, a structural supply-demand imbalance could keep copper prices elevated over the coming years. Goldman Sachs even suggested that if green investments continue to exceed expectations, copper prices could test the $10,000-per-tonne mark in 2024. This forecast not only reflects bullish sentiment toward base metals but also underscores copper’s strategic role as the ‘metal of the energy transition.’
近日，国际知名投行高盛宣布上调其对2024年上半年伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价的预测。此前，高盛预计上半年铜价平均为每吨8,500美元，现将其上调至9,200美元。这一调整主要基于全球绿色能源转型加速、铜供应增长受限以及库存持续处于低位等多重因素。高盛指出，随着电动汽车、可再生能源基础设施和电网升级等领域的投资不断加大，对铜的需求正显著上升。与此同时，主要产铜国如智利和秘鲁面临矿山品位下降、社区抗议及政策不确定性等问题，导致新增产能释放缓慢。此外，LME铜库存已降至多年低位，进一步加剧了市场对短期供应紧张的担忧。分析师强调，尽管全球经济仍存在下行风险，但结构性供需错配可能在未来数年支撑铜价维持高位。高盛甚至认为，若绿色投资继续超预期，铜价有望在2024年内挑战每吨10,000美元大关。这一预测不仅反映了市场对基本金属的乐观情绪，也凸显了铜作为“绿色金属”在能源转型中的战略地位。
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