In recent years, escalating geopolitical tensions, intensifying great-power competition, and rapid advances in emerging military technologies have given rise to a new phase of global arms racing. While the comprehensive nuclear standoff of the Cold War era is history, major powers such as the United States, China, and Russia are accelerating the development and deployment of cutting-edge capabilities—including hypersonic weapons, AI-enabled combat systems, and space and cyber warfare assets. The U.S. 2023 National Defense Strategy explicitly identifies China as its ‘pacing challenge’ and has significantly increased defense spending. China continues to modernize its military with an emphasis on combat readiness, while Russia has reinforced its strategic deterrence amid the Ukraine conflict. Moreover, numerous countries are expanding defense budgets, upgrading arsenals, and strengthening military alliances—such as NATO’s eastward expansion and the U.S.-Japan-India-Australia Quad—further heightening regional tensions. Although this emerging arms race has not yet reached Cold War scales, it is characterized by greater technological complexity, multi-domain integration, and strategic ambiguity. Experts warn that without effective dialogue and arms control mechanisms, this trend could increase the risk of miscalculation and undermine global strategic stability.
近年来，随着地缘政治紧张局势加剧、大国竞争升温以及新兴军事技术的迅猛发展，全球军备竞赛呈现出新的特征。虽然冷战时期的全面核对峙已成历史，但美、中、俄等主要国家正加速推进高超音速武器、人工智能作战系统、太空与网络战能力等尖端军事技术的研发与部署。美国《2023年国防战略》明确将中国视为“首要挑战”，并大幅增加军费；中国则持续提升国防现代化水平，强调“能打仗、打胜仗”；俄罗斯在乌克兰冲突背景下亦强化其战略威慑力量。此外，多国纷纷扩大国防预算、更新武器装备、加强军事联盟，如北约东扩、美日印澳“四方安全对话”机制等，进一步推高区域紧张。尽管当前军备竞赛尚未达到冷战规模，但其技术复杂性、多域融合性和战略模糊性更甚以往。专家警告，若缺乏有效对话与军控机制，新一轮军备竞赛可能加剧误判风险，威胁全球战略稳定。
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