Recently, Huatai Securities released a research report indicating that China’s core inflation indicators continue to show a recovery trend, signaling a gradual rebound in domestic demand. Core inflation—typically defined as the consumer price index (CPI) excluding volatile food and energy prices—better reflects the underlying, longer-term price dynamics and demand conditions in the economy. Data shows that since early 2024, year-on-year growth in core CPI has steadily increased, suggesting improved consumer willingness to spend and recovering price support in service sectors and non-essential consumer goods.According to Huatai Securities, this trend is supported by multiple factors: first, earlier pro-growth policies are gradually taking effect, improving employment and income expectations; second, post-pandemic recovery in service consumption continues to underpin overall price levels; and third, marginal stabilization in the property market has alleviated downward pricing pressure across related industrial chains. Additionally, stabilizing global commodity prices have reduced imported inflationary pressures on China’s domestic pricing system.Looking ahead, Huatai Securities expects core inflation to continue its mild recovery, though upside potential remains constrained by the pace of household balance sheet repair and external uncertainties. If coordinated fiscal and monetary policies further boost confidence and consumption, core inflation could become a key indicator for assessing substantive economic recovery.
近期，华泰证券发布研究报告指出，中国核心通胀指标延续修复趋势，显示出内需逐步回暖的积极信号。所谓核心通胀，通常指剔除食品和能源价格波动后的消费者物价指数（CPI），更能反映经济中长期的价格走势与需求状况。数据显示，2024年以来，核心CPI同比涨幅稳中有升，表明居民消费意愿有所增强，服务类消费、非必需消费品等领域的价格支撑力正在恢复。华泰证券分析认为，这一趋势的背后有多重因素支撑：一是前期稳增长政策持续显效，带动就业和收入预期改善；二是服务消费在疫后持续复苏，对整体价格形成托底作用；三是房地产市场边际企稳，间接缓解了相关产业链的价格下行压力。此外，全球大宗商品价格趋于稳定，也减轻了输入性通胀对国内价格体系的扰动。展望未来，华泰证券预计核心通胀将在温和区间内继续修复，但上行空间仍受制于居民资产负债表修复进度及外部环境不确定性。若后续财政与货币政策协同发力，进一步提振信心与消费，核心通胀有望成为判断经济实质性复苏的重要观察窗口。
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