Recently, multiple market research firms have reported that the upward trend in global memory chip prices is expected to continue through 2026. This outlook is primarily driven by persistent supply-demand imbalances, surging demand for high-performance memory from artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers, and relatively conservative capacity expansion plans among major manufacturers.Since the second half of 2023, DRAM and NAND flash prices have risen for several consecutive quarters. Growing adoption in AI servers, premium smartphones, automotive electronics, and other emerging applications has intensified demand for high-bandwidth, high-capacity memory chips, further tightening supply. Leading players such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, after adjusting inventory levels, have adopted cautious approaches to capacity expansion to maintain price stability and profitability.Geopolitical risks and technology upgrade cycles also underpin pricing. For instance, the transition to advanced process nodes like 1β and 1γ raises technical barriers, limiting new entrants. Export controls on critical semiconductor equipment by certain countries may further slow future capacity ramp-up.Overall, analysts widely expect memory prices to remain on an upward trajectory over the next two years, benefiting industry leaders with strong technological capabilities and economies of scale.
近期，多家市场研究机构发布报告指出，全球存储芯片价格的上涨趋势预计将延续至2026年。这一判断主要基于供需关系的持续紧张、人工智能（AI）和数据中心对高性能存储需求的激增，以及主要厂商产能扩张节奏相对保守等因素。自2023年下半年以来，DRAM和NAND闪存价格已连续多个季度上涨。随着AI服务器、智能手机高端机型及汽车电子等新兴应用场景对高带宽、大容量存储芯片的需求不断攀升，市场供不应求的局面进一步加剧。同时，三星、SK海力士和美光等头部存储厂商在经历前期库存调整后，普遍采取谨慎扩产策略，以维持价格稳定和盈利能力。此外，地缘政治风险和技术升级周期也对价格形成支撑。例如，先进制程向1β、1γ节点推进提高了技术门槛，限制了新进入者；而部分国家对关键半导体设备出口的管制，则可能影响未来产能释放速度。综合来看，机构普遍认为，在强劲终端需求与有限供给增长的双重作用下，存储价格将在未来两年内保持上行态势，利好具备技术优势和规模效应的龙头企业。
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