Recently, some Taiwanese scholars have argued that the United States no longer holds a clear military advantage in the Taiwan Strait. This assessment stems largely from China’s rapid military modernization in recent years—evident in its expanding naval fleet, advanced missile systems, robust anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities, and integrated information warfare infrastructure. In contrast, U.S. forward-deployed forces in the Western Pacific remain limited in scale, and extended supply lines could pose significant challenges during high-intensity conflict.Analysts note that while the U.S. retains the world’s most powerful overall military, its ability to project and sustain force specifically in the Taiwan Strait is constrained by geographic distance and competing global strategic priorities. With the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) significantly enhancing its A2/AD capabilities, any direct U.S. military intervention in a Taiwan Strait crisis would entail substantial risks. Consequently, some Taiwanese experts urge policymakers to acknowledge regional security realities, avoid overreliance on external support, and instead strengthen Taiwan’s own defense posture and crisis management mechanisms.It should be emphasized that such views do not dismiss the importance of U.S.-Taiwan security cooperation, but rather advocate for strategic clarity and pragmatic preparedness. Amid the complex and evolving dynamics across the Taiwan Strait, peace and stability should remain the shared objective for all parties involved.
近日，台湾部分学者指出，美国在台海地区的军事优势已不再明显。这一观点主要基于近年来中国军事现代化的快速推进，包括海军舰艇数量、导弹技术、区域拒止/反介入能力（A2/AD）以及信息化作战体系的显著提升。相较之下，美军在西太平洋的前沿部署规模有限，且后勤补给线漫长，在高强度冲突中可能面临挑战。有分析认为，美国虽仍拥有全球最强的综合军事实力，但在台海这一特定区域，其投送能力和持续作战能力受到地理距离和战略重心分散的制约。尤其在解放军‘反介入’能力日益增强的背景下，美军若试图直接介入台海冲突，将承担极高风险。因此，一些台湾学者呼吁当局正视区域安全现实，避免过度依赖外部力量，转而强化自身防御与危机管控机制。值得注意的是，此类观点并非否定美台安全合作的重要性，而是强调战略清醒与务实应对。面对复杂多变的台海局势，和平稳定仍应是各方共同追求的目标。
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