China International Capital Corporation (CICC) recently released a research report stating that, despite growing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, the Fed is highly likely to hold rates steady at its January 2024 policy meeting and will not initiate a rate cut. CICC notes that although U.S. inflation has moderated, it remains above the Fed’s 2% long-term target. Moreover, the labor market remains resilient and consumer spending robust—factors that constrain the Fed’s room to pivot prematurely toward monetary easing. Additionally, Fed officials have repeatedly emphasized a ‘data-dependent’ approach and the need for ‘caution,’ indicating they want more concrete evidence of sustained disinflation before adjusting the interest rate path. CICC forecasts that if core inflation continues to ease moderately over the coming months and clear signs of labor market cooling emerge, the Fed could begin cutting rates as early as late Q2 or early Q3 of 2024. Therefore, investors should manage short-term market sentiment rationally and focus on upcoming key economic data and Fed communications, avoiding excessive bets on a January rate cut.
中金公司（CICC）近日发布研报指出，尽管市场对美联储降息预期持续升温，但综合当前经济数据与政策信号判断，美联储在2024年1月的议息会议上仍大概率维持利率不变，不会启动降息。中金认为，美国通胀虽有所回落，但仍高于美联储2%的长期目标，且劳动力市场保持韧性，消费支出稳健，这些因素均限制了美联储过早转向宽松政策的空间。此外，美联储官员近期多次强调‘数据依赖’和‘谨慎行事’，表明其希望看到更多通胀持续下行的确凿证据后，才会考虑调整利率路径。中金预计，若未来几个月核心通胀继续温和回落、就业市场出现明显降温迹象，美联储最早可能在2024年第二季度末或第三季度初开启降息周期。因此，投资者应理性看待短期市场情绪波动，关注后续关键经济数据及美联储表态，避免过度押注1月降息的可能性。
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