Recently, China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) stated at its annual work conference that the country’s foreign exchange market is expected to operate steadily in 2026. This outlook is supported by several positive factors: first, China’s solid and improving economic fundamentals provide a strong foundation; second, cross-border capital flows are becoming more rational as market participants have significantly heightened awareness of exchange rate risks; and third, foreign exchange reserves remain at a reasonably ample level, offering robust capacity to withstand external shocks.SAFE emphasized that it will continue deepening reform and opening-up in the foreign exchange sector, improve the macro-prudential management framework, strengthen forward guidance, and crack down on illegal foreign exchange activities to safeguard market order and national financial security. Additionally, efforts will be made to further marketize the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, enhance exchange rate flexibility, and better leverage its role as an ‘automatic stabilizer’ for balancing international payments.Experts note that amid ongoing global economic uncertainties, the stability of China’s foreign exchange market not only supports high-quality domestic economic growth but also brings predictability to global financial markets. With continued institutional opening-up, China’s forex market is poised to become more resilient and dynamic, laying a solid foundation for stable operations through 2026 and beyond.
近日，国家外汇管理局（外管局）在年度工作会议中表示，展望2026年，我国外汇市场有望保持稳定运行。这一判断基于多重积极因素：一是我国经济基本面持续向好，为外汇市场提供坚实支撑；二是跨境资本流动趋于理性，市场主体汇率风险意识显著增强；三是外汇储备规模保持在合理充裕水平，具备较强应对外部冲击的能力。外管局指出，未来将继续深化外汇领域改革开放，完善宏观审慎管理框架，强化预期引导，并严厉打击外汇违法违规行为，以维护市场秩序和国家金融安全。同时，将推动人民币汇率形成机制更加市场化，增强汇率弹性，更好发挥其调节国际收支的“自动稳定器”功能。专家分析认为，在全球经济不确定性依然存在的背景下，中国外汇市场的稳定性不仅有助于国内经济高质量发展，也将为全球金融市场注入确定性。随着制度型开放持续推进，我国外汇市场将更具韧性与活力，为2026年及更长远时期的平稳运行奠定基础。
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