Recently, Deutsche Bank released a research report indicating that although markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in 2024, the bank believes the Fed could resume rate hikes in 2025 if inflationary pressures re-emerge or economic data remains robust. Deutsche Bank noted that core inflation in the U.S. remains sticky, the labor market stays tight, and factors such as widening fiscal deficits and volatile energy prices could compel the Fed to keep rates elevated for longer—or even consider additional hikes to anchor inflation expectations. The bank emphasized that the Fed’s policy trajectory will heavily depend on upcoming employment and inflation data, with any stronger-than-expected economic performance potentially shifting its stance. This outlook contrasts sharply with prevailing market consensus and serves as a caution to investors about the risks of policy reversal and associated market volatility.
近日，德国商业银行（德银）发布研究报告指出，尽管当前市场普遍预期美联储将在2024年开启降息周期，但该行认为，若通胀压力再度抬头或经济数据持续强劲，美联储可能在2025年重启加息。德银分析称，当前美国核心通胀仍具粘性，劳动力市场保持紧张，叠加财政赤字扩大和能源价格波动等因素，可能迫使美联储维持较高利率更长时间，甚至重新考虑加息以控制通胀预期。此外，德银强调，美联储的政策路径将高度依赖未来几个月的就业与通胀数据，任何超预期的经济表现都可能改变其政策方向。这一观点与当前主流市场预期形成鲜明对比，提醒投资者需警惕政策转向带来的市场波动风险。
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