There is currently significant divergence in the market over whether China’s A-share spring rally can reach new highs. Historically, A-shares often exhibit a ‘calendar effect’ around the Chinese New Year, with spring rallies typically driven by supportive policies, ample liquidity, and improving investor sentiment. In early 2024, the market rebounded amid continued pro-growth policy measures, the nearing end of the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle, and marginal improvements in domestic economic data. However, several challenges remain: corporate earnings recovery remains fragile, valuations in certain sectors are already relatively high, and external geopolitical risks along with global market volatility could weigh on A-shares. Although policy support has boosted liquidity, domestic investor participation remains subdued. Overall, while the spring rally may continue, whether it can break through previous highs depends on the effectiveness of upcoming policy implementation, the strength of economic recovery, and the pace of foreign capital inflows. If these factors align positively, A-shares could reach new highs; otherwise, the market may enter a period of consolidation.
近期市场对A股春季行情是否还能创出新高存在较大分歧。从历史数据看，A股在春节前后往往存在一定的‘日历效应’，即春季行情通常伴随政策利好、流动性宽松和投资者情绪回暖而展开。2024年开年以来，随着稳增长政策持续加码、美联储加息周期接近尾声以及国内经济数据边际改善，A股一度出现反弹。然而，当前市场仍面临多重挑战：一方面，企业盈利修复尚不稳固，部分行业估值已处于相对高位；另一方面，外部地缘政治风险和全球市场波动可能对A股形成扰动。此外，资金面虽有增量政策支持，但内资参与度仍显不足。综合来看，春季行情或仍有延续动力，但能否突破前期高点，需观察后续政策落地效果、经济复苏强度及外资回流节奏。若上述因素形成共振，A股有望再创新高；反之，则可能进入震荡整固阶段。
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