Whether rare earth elements will remain a focal point in U.S.-China trade negotiations depends on multiple factors. Rare earths are critical to high-tech, defense, and clean energy industries. China currently dominates global rare earth production and processing, accounting for over 60% of mining output and nearly 90% of refined capacity. During the height of U.S.-China trade tensions in 2019, China hinted at restricting rare earth exports—a move that sent shockwaves through global markets—highlighting their potential use as a strategic bargaining chip.However, the landscape has evolved. The U.S. and its allies are actively diversifying rare earth supply chains by investing in projects in Australia, Africa, and elsewhere, while also rebuilding domestic processing capabilities. Meanwhile, China recognizes that overusing rare earths as a geopolitical tool could accelerate efforts by other countries to reduce reliance on Chinese supply, ultimately undermining its long-term market dominance. Moreover, surging global demand driven by the green energy transition makes cooperation more beneficial than confrontation.Thus, while rare earths retain strategic significance, their role as a central bargaining issue in future U.S.-China trade talks may diminish, giving way to broader concerns such as technology standards and supply chain resilience. Nevertheless, during periods of heightened geopolitical tension, rare earths could still re-emerge as a potential leverage point in negotiations.
稀土是否会继续成为中美贸易谈判的焦点议题，取决于多重因素。稀土元素广泛应用于高科技、国防和新能源产业，中国目前是全球最大的稀土生产国和出口国，掌握着全球约60%以上的开采产能和近90%的精炼产能。在中美战略竞争加剧的背景下，稀土曾被视为中国可能使用的“反制筹码”。2019年中美贸易摩擦高峰期，中国就曾暗示可能限制稀土出口，引发国际市场震动。然而，近年来情况有所变化。一方面，美国及其他西方国家加速推进稀土供应链多元化，例如投资澳大利亚、非洲等地的稀土项目，并重建本土加工能力；另一方面，中国也意识到过度依赖稀土作为外交工具可能加速他国“去中国化”进程，反而削弱自身长期市场优势。此外，全球绿色转型对稀土需求持续上升，合作而非对抗更符合各方利益。因此，尽管稀土仍具战略重要性，但在未来中美贸易谈判中，其作为“核心博弈点”的角色可能减弱，更多转向技术标准、产业链安全等更广泛的议题。不过，在特定地缘政治紧张时刻，稀土仍可能被重新推上谈判桌，成为潜在的施压工具。
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