A recent report by the China Finance 40 Forum (CF40) suggests that the downward cycle of China’s real estate market is expected to last until 2026, which may mark the “final year” of this adjustment period. This projection is based on a comprehensive analysis of supply-demand dynamics, policy interventions, and long-term demographic trends. The report indicates that the market is currently transitioning from the old model of “high leverage and rapid turnover” to a new development paradigm that prioritizes both rental and purchase options. While this shift involves short-term challenges, stability is anticipated to gradually return after 2026. Policy measures such as price controls and credit support have been implemented to mitigate risks and accelerate market consolidation. Meanwhile, urbanization and demand for housing upgrades will continue to sustain medium-to-long-term market potential. CF40 recommends promoting a soft landing through supply-side reforms and financial risk prevention to inject new momentum into the sector.
中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）近期发布的研究报告提出，中国房地产市场的下行周期预计将持续至2026年，该年份可能成为此轮调整的“最后一年”。这一判断基于对供需结构、政策调控及长期人口趋势的综合分析。报告指出，当前市场正经历从“高杠杆、高周转”旧模式向租购并举的新发展模式转型，过程中伴随阵痛，但2026年后有望逐步趋于稳定。政策层面通过限价、信贷支持等措施对冲风险，加速市场出清。同时，城镇化与改善型需求仍将支撑中长期市场潜力。CF40建议，需通过供给侧改革与金融风险防控推动软着陆，为行业注入新动能。
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