Recently, markets have been closely watching whether the Federal Reserve has restarted a monetary easing cycle. Since early 2024, as U.S. inflation continues to ease and the labor market shows signs of moderate cooling, the Fed has signaled a potential policy pivot in several FOMC meetings. Although it has not yet cut interest rates, officials widely suggest that rate cuts could begin later this year if economic data remains supportive—a stance widely interpreted by markets as a prelude to easing.Notably, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasizes that monetary policy remains in a ‘restrictive’ stance, and any adjustments will strictly follow a data-dependent approach. This means that while expectations for easing are rising, actual policy moves still hinge on key indicators such as inflation, employment, and economic growth.Moreover, the pace of balance sheet runoff (quantitative tightening) has also slowed, further reinforcing market expectations of a policy shift. Overall, while the Fed has not officially declared the start of a new easing cycle, its communication and actions increasingly reflect a dovish tilt, suggesting a gradual transition from restrictive to neutral—and potentially accommodative—monetary policy.
近期，市场对美联储是否已重启宽松周期高度关注。2024年以来，随着美国通胀持续回落、就业市场温和放缓，美联储在多次议息会议上释放出政策转向的信号。尽管尚未正式降息，但官员们普遍表示，若经济数据继续改善，降息可能在年内启动。这被市场广泛解读为宽松周期的前奏。值得注意的是，美联储主席鲍威尔强调，货币政策仍处于‘限制性’区间，任何调整都将基于数据依赖原则。这意味着，虽然宽松预期升温，但实际政策行动仍需观察通胀、就业和经济增长等关键指标的表现。此外，资产负债表缩减（缩表）节奏也有所放缓，进一步强化了市场对政策转向的预期。综合来看，美联储虽未明确宣布开启新一轮宽松周期，但其措辞和操作已显露出明显的鸽派倾向，预示着货币政策可能正从紧缩向中性甚至宽松过渡。
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