The decline in the U.S. dollar index on the 29th reflects growing market expectations for a Fed rate cut and improved risk sentiment. The index fell by 0.5% to around 103.2, hitting a nearly three-week low. On one hand, recent U.S. economic data indicated easing inflationary pressures, strengthening bets that the Federal Reserve might cut rates sooner, thereby weighing on the dollar. On the other hand, a recovery in global equity markets reduced safe-haven demand, diverting some capital to non-USD currencies and commodities. Technically, the near-term support level for the dollar index is around 102.8; a break below could open further downside. This movement also contributed to a rebound in dollar-denominated assets like gold and crude oil. Market participants will closely monitor upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI data, as well as signals from the Federal Reserve’s policy meetings.
美元指数29日下跌，反映了市场对美联储降息预期的升温及风险情绪的改善。当日该指数下跌0.5%，至103.2附近，创近三周新低。一方面，美国最新经济数据显示通胀压力有所缓和，增强了投资者对美联储可能提前降息的押注，导致美元承压；另一方面，全球股市回暖削弱了避险需求，资金部分流向非美货币和大宗商品。技术面上，美元指数短期支撑位关注102.8水平，若跌破可能进一步打开下行空间。这一波动也影响了黄金、原油等以美元计价资产的价格反弹。未来需重点关注美国非农就业与CPI数据，以及美联储议息会议的信号指引。
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