Recently, scholars have argued that the United States is in fact incapable of carrying out a genuine ‘strategic retrenchment.’ Although some political voices advocate reducing overseas military presence and focusing on domestic priorities, geopolitical realities, economic interests, and the imperative to sustain global influence make a substantial withdrawal from global commitments highly unlikely. First, the U.S. maintains hundreds of military bases worldwide—facilities essential not only for deterring adversaries but also for upholding alliance stability. Second, the dominance of the U.S. dollar and its deep integration into the global financial system require continued American influence over critical sea lanes, resource regions, and market order. Moreover, amid challenges such as China’s rise, Russian assertiveness, and ongoing hotspots in the Middle East, a significant U.S. pullback could create power vacuums that ultimately undermine its long-term security interests. Therefore, what is often labeled ‘strategic retrenchment’ is more accurately seen as tactical recalibration or rhetorical posturing rather than a fundamental strategic shift. Scholars emphasize that the U.S. will likely continue to sustain its global leadership through flexible means, rather than truly retreating to its shores.
近期，有学者指出，美国实际上不可能真正实施所谓的“战略收缩”（strategic retrenchment）。尽管部分政治声音呼吁减少海外军事存在、聚焦国内事务，但从地缘政治、经济利益和全球影响力的角度看，美国难以实质性撤回其全球战略部署。首先，美国在全球拥有数百个军事基地，这些设施不仅用于威慑潜在对手，也维系着盟友体系的稳定。其次，美元霸权与全球金融体系深度绑定，要求美国维持对关键航道、资源产地和市场秩序的影响力。再者，面对中国崛起、俄罗斯挑战及中东等地缘热点，美国若大幅收缩，可能引发权力真空，反而损害其长期安全利益。因此，所谓“战略收缩”更多是一种战术调整或舆论姿态，而非根本性战略转向。学者强调，美国仍将继续以灵活方式维持其全球主导地位，而非真正退守本土。
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