Recently, China Securities Co., Ltd. (CSC) released a research report indicating that the baijiu (Chinese liquor) sector is entering a new cyclical window for strategic allocation. The report notes that the industry is approaching the tail end of inventory destocking, with channel sales gradually recovering. Coupled with the upcoming traditional consumption peak seasons—such as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays—demand is expected to see a short-term rebound. Furthermore, premium and sub-premium baijiu brands have stabilized their pricing structures and now demonstrate stronger resilience and profitability. CSC recommends investors focus on leading companies with strong brand moats, robust distribution control, and high earnings visibility. From a valuation perspective, the baijiu sector currently trades near historical lows, offering an attractive margin of safety and long-term investment value. Overall, against the backdrop of a mild macroeconomic recovery and gradual restoration of consumer confidence, the sector may have entered an opportune period for positioning.However, the report cautions that despite near-term upside potential, the industry still faces structural challenges, including evolving consumption patterns and shifting drinking habits among younger demographics. Therefore, a selective, phased investment approach is advised to navigate potential volatility.
近期，中信建投证券发布研报指出，白酒板块正迎来新一轮的周期性配置机会。报告认为，当前白酒行业已处于库存去化尾声，渠道动销逐步恢复，叠加中秋、国庆等传统消费旺季临近，需求端有望迎来阶段性回暖。此外，高端及次高端白酒品牌在价格体系趋于稳定后，具备更强的抗风险能力和盈利韧性。中信建投建议投资者可重点关注具有品牌护城河、渠道掌控力强以及业绩确定性高的龙头企业。从估值角度看，当前白酒板块整体处于历史低位，安全边际较高，具备中长期配置价值。综合来看，在宏观经济温和复苏与消费信心逐步修复的背景下，白酒板块或已进入布局窗口期。需注意的是，尽管短期存在反弹动能，但行业整体仍面临消费结构变化、年轻群体饮酒习惯转变等结构性挑战。因此，机构建议采取“精选个股、分批布局”的策略，以应对潜在波动。
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