During this year’s ‘Sanjiu’ period—the traditionally coldest stretch of winter in China, spanning days 19 to 27 after the winter solstice—temperatures across many regions have been 4 to 6 degrees Celsius higher than the long-term average, drawing public attention to climate change. Meteorologists attribute this anomaly to a combination of global warming and unusual atmospheric circulation patterns. Specifically, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has remained in a positive phase, suppressing the southward movement of cold air masses. Additionally, a northward shift of the subtropical high-pressure system has facilitated the persistent influx of warm, moist air into northern regions. While short-term weather fluctuations do not directly equate to long-term climate trends, the overall warming trend during recent winters is undeniable. Experts caution that although milder temperatures may enhance human comfort, they could also disrupt agricultural cycles, enable overwintering pests to survive more easily, and affect energy demand planning. Proactive measures are therefore recommended to address these emerging challenges.
今年‘三九’期间，全国多地气温较常年同期偏高4至6摄氏度，引发公众对气候变化的关注。‘三九’通常指冬至后的第19天到第27天，是一年中最寒冷的时段之一。然而，受全球变暖及阶段性大气环流异常影响，今年‘三九’不仅未出现极端低温，反而多地创下同期高温纪录。气象专家指出，这种反常现象与北极涛动（AO）处于正相位、冷空气活动偏弱密切相关。同时，副热带高压位置偏北，也使得暖湿气流持续向北输送，进一步抬升气温。虽然短期天气波动不能直接等同于长期气候趋势，但近年来冬季气温整体呈上升态势，已成不争事实。专家提醒，气温偏高虽带来体感舒适，但也可能影响农业生产、病虫害越冬及能源调度，需引起重视并做好应对准备。
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