Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, fighting on the battlefield has been intertwined with intermittent diplomatic talks. Despite repeated signals from both sides indicating willingness to negotiate, substantive progress remains elusive, resulting in a protracted stalemate characterized by ‘fighting while talking.’ This uncertainty has placed immense strain on European countries. On one hand, the EU and several member states continue providing Ukraine with military and economic aid, bearing significant financial burdens. On the other hand, volatile energy prices, refugee inflows, and security threats have fueled public fatigue over prolonged support for the war. Nations like Germany and France are attempting to balance continued assistance to Ukraine with efforts to promote peace negotiations, yet face clear internal divisions. Moreover, with the upcoming U.S. presidential election, potential shifts in American policy toward Europe add to strategic anxieties. While the ‘fight-and-talk’ approach keeps a glimmer of hope for a peaceful resolution alive, it also leaves Europe caught in a dilemma—unable to disengage easily yet unable to foresee a clear end to the conflict. This state of strategic ambiguity is testing Europe’s political resilience and unity.
自2022年俄乌冲突爆发以来，战场上的拉锯与外交桌上的谈判始终交织进行。尽管双方多次释放和谈信号，但实质性进展寥寥，形成‘边打边谈’的僵持局面。这种不确定性令欧洲国家深感煎熬。一方面，欧盟及多个成员国持续向乌克兰提供军事与经济援助，承受着巨大的财政压力；另一方面，能源价格波动、难民潮和安全威胁使民众对长期支持战争产生疲劳情绪。德国、法国等国试图在对乌援助与推动和平谈判之间寻求平衡，但内部意见分歧明显。同时，美国大选临近，其对欧政策可能生变，更增加了欧洲的战略焦虑。‘边打边谈’虽保留了和平解决的一线希望，却也让欧洲陷入进退两难：既无法轻易抽身，又难以看到冲突终结的明确路径。这种战略模糊状态正在考验欧洲的政治韧性与团结。
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