近期多家券商和研究机构指出，A股市场传统的‘春季躁动’（简称‘春躁’）行情可能在今年12月中下旬提前启动。通常情况下，‘春躁’是指每年一季度初因政策预期、流动性宽松及年报预增等因素推动的阶段性上涨行情。然而，今年受宏观经济企稳、稳增长政策持续加码以及市场情绪逐步修复等多重因素影响，部分机构认为资金面和政策面已具备提前催化行情的条件。具体来看，12月以来央行维持流动性合理充裕，财政政策也在加快落地，叠加中央经济工作会议释放积极信号，市场对明年经济增长和企业盈利改善的预期明显增强。此外，部分行业如消费、科技和新能源等领域已出现资金提前布局迹象。机构普遍建议投资者关注低估值蓝筹、高景气成长板块以及受益于政策支持的方向，为可能提前到来的‘春躁’行情做好配置准备。不过，也有分析提醒，当前外部环境仍存在不确定性，如全球货币政策走向、地缘政治风险等，或对市场节奏构成扰动。因此，尽管‘春躁’有望提前启动，投资者仍需保持理性，注重结构性机会与风险控制。
Recently, multiple securities firms and research institutions have suggested that the traditional ‘Spring Rally’—a seasonal uptrend in China’s A stock market—could kick off as early as mid-to-late December this year. Typically, the Spring Rally occurs in early Q1, driven by expectations of supportive policies, ample liquidity, and positive earnings previews. However, due to a stabilizing macroeconomic environment, intensified pro-growth policy measures, and gradually improving market sentiment, some analysts believe the necessary conditions for an early rally are already in place.Since early December, the People’s Bank of China has maintained reasonably ample liquidity, while fiscal stimulus is being rolled out at an accelerated pace. Moreover, the recent Central Economic Work Conference sent strong positive signals, boosting market confidence in next year’s economic growth and corporate earnings recovery. Early signs of capital rotation into sectors like consumer goods, technology, and new energy have also emerged. Institutions generally recommend investors focus on undervalued blue-chip stocks, high-growth sectors, and policy-favored industries to position for a potentially early Spring Rally.That said, analysts caution that external uncertainties—including global monetary policy shifts and geopolitical risks—could still disrupt market momentum. Therefore, while an early Spring Rally appears plausible, investors are advised to remain prudent, emphasizing structural opportunities and risk management.
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