Recently, renowned economist Ma Guangyuan pointed out that the recent strong rally in China’s A-share market is not accidental but driven by three interlinked optimistic narratives. First, supportive policy signals continue to emerge: the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized a ‘stability-first, steady progress’ approach, with coordinated fiscal and monetary policies boosting market confidence. Second, China’s economic fundamentals are gradually stabilizing and recovering. Despite external pressures, upgrades in manufacturing, a rebound in consumption, and resilient exports have supported overall economic recovery, laying the groundwork for improved corporate earnings. Third, market sentiment has significantly improved. After a prolonged adjustment period, investors increasingly recognize the A-share market as undervalued. Combined with returning foreign capital and institutional investment activity, this has fueled trading momentum. Ma argues that these three factors reinforce each other, creating the underlying drivers of the current market upswing. However, he cautions against short-term volatility risks and stresses that sustained market health ultimately depends on institutional reforms and genuine recovery in the real economy.
近期，知名经济学家马光远指出，A股市场的强劲反弹并非偶然，而是由三重乐观叙事共同驱动的结果。首先，政策面持续释放积极信号。中央经济工作会议强调“稳中求进”，财政与货币政策协同发力，为市场注入信心。其次，中国经济基本面逐步企稳回升。尽管面临外部压力，但制造业升级、消费复苏和出口韧性支撑了整体经济的修复态势，为企业盈利改善奠定基础。第三，市场情绪显著回暖。在经历长期调整后，投资者对A股估值洼地的认知增强，叠加外资回流、机构资金布局等因素，推动市场交易活跃度提升。马光远认为，这三重逻辑相互强化，形成了当前A股上涨的内在动力。但他也提醒，市场仍需警惕短期波动风险，长期健康发展仍依赖于制度完善与实体经济的真实复苏。
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