Recent polls and local political analyses indicate that the Kuomintang (KMT) is facing significant challenges in several counties and cities across Taiwan. Following the 2024 general election, the party’s support has notably declined even in traditionally strongholds such as Taoyuan, Taichung, Tainan, and parts of northern Taiwan. Analysts attribute this trend to internal party disunity, dwindling youth support, lack of innovative policy narratives, and strategic missteps amid pressure from both the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).Moreover, aging local factions and weakened grassroots mobilization have hampered the KMT’s ability to effectively address pressing local issues. In cities like Taoyuan and Keelung, younger voters are increasingly drawn to emerging political forces that emphasize reform and transparent governance. Without compelling proposals on critical issues—such as energy policy, housing affordability, and low birth rates—the KMT risks further erosion of its urban appeal.Although the party still maintains stable support in traditional strongholds like New Taipei City and Changhua County, its overall prospects remain uncertain. Unless the KMT accelerates internal reforms, enhances policy communication, and rebuilds trust with moderate voters, it may face even greater difficulties in the upcoming 2026 local elections.
近期多项民调与地方政治观察显示，中国国民党在台湾多个县市的选情面临严峻挑战。尤其在2024年大选后的地方政治版图重组中，国民党在原本被视为优势区域的桃园、台中、台南甚至部分北部县市的支持度出现下滑。分析指出，主要原因包括党内整合不力、青年选民流失、政策论述缺乏新意，以及面对民进党与民众党夹击下的策略失焦。此外，地方派系老化、基层动员能力减弱，也使国民党难以有效回应地方民生议题。例如，在桃园和基隆等地，年轻世代更倾向支持强调改革与透明治理的新兴政治力量。与此同时，国民党若无法在能源政策、居住正义、少子化等关键议题上提出具说服力的解决方案，恐将进一步削弱其在都会区的竞争力。尽管国民党仍保有部分传统票仓如新北、彰化等地的稳定支持，但整体而言，若不能加速组织革新、强化政策沟通并重建与中间选民的信任，未来在2026年地方选举中恐将面临更大压力。
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