In recent years, as global geopolitical tensions intensify, economic and financial tools have increasingly become a new arena for great-power competition. A so-called ‘capital war’ refers to the use of financial sanctions, restrictions on capital flows, asset freezes, and disconnection from international payment systems (such as SWIFT) to exert economic pressure on a target country for political or strategic ends. The unprecedented financial sanctions imposed by Western nations on Russia following the Ukraine conflict are widely seen as a textbook example of such a ‘capital war.’So, is Europe willing to wage a ‘capital war’? In terms of capability, Europe possesses the euro—one of the world’s major reserve currencies—and benefits from mature financial regulatory frameworks and international cooperation mechanisms within the EU. However, Europe still lacks strategic autonomy, with its financial infrastructure (e.g., clearing systems) heavily reliant on U.S.-dominated global networks. Launching a ‘capital war’ could provoke retaliatory measures, destabilize its own financial markets, and even accelerate de-dollarization and fragmentation of the global financial system.Moreover, there is internal division within Europe over the use of aggressive financial tools. While major powers like Germany and France support sanctions against Russia, they also worry that over-militarizing finance could erode the foundations of global economic cooperation. Thus, although Europe has some capacity to engage in a ‘capital war,’ its political will, strategic unity, and risk tolerance remain uncertain. To truly gain financial sovereignty in the future, Europe must enhance strategic autonomy, build independent financial infrastructure, and strike a balance between values and pragmatic interests.
近年来，随着全球地缘政治紧张局势加剧，经济与金融手段逐渐成为大国博弈的新战场。所谓“资本战”，指的是通过金融制裁、资本流动限制、资产冻结、切断国际支付系统（如SWIFT）等手段，对目标国家施加经济压力，以达成政治或战略目的。在俄乌冲突爆发后，西方国家对俄罗斯实施了前所未有的金融制裁，被视为“资本战”的典型案例。那么，欧洲敢打一场“资本战”吗？从能力上看，欧洲拥有欧元这一全球主要储备货币之一，且欧盟及其成员国具备成熟的金融监管体系和国际合作机制。然而，欧洲在战略自主性方面仍显不足，其金融基础设施（如清算系统）高度依赖美国主导的全球体系。一旦发动“资本战”，可能引发反制措施，冲击自身金融市场稳定，甚至加速“去美元化”和全球金融体系碎片化。更重要的是，欧洲内部对是否采取激进金融手段存在分歧。德国、法国等大国虽支持对俄制裁，但也担忧过度金融武器化会削弱全球化合作基础。因此，欧洲虽具备一定“资本战”能力，但在政治意愿、战略统一性和风险承受力方面仍存疑虑。未来，欧洲若想真正掌握金融话语权，需加强战略自主，构建独立的金融基础设施，并在价值观与现实利益之间找到平衡点。
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