In today’s complex and volatile market environment, an increasing number of fund managers are shifting their investment focus toward ‘certainty’ and ‘margin of safety.’ ‘Certainty’ refers to companies with clear business models, strong industry positions, and highly predictable future cash flows. ‘Margin of safety,’ a core principle of value investing, emphasizes purchasing assets at prices significantly below their intrinsic value to mitigate potential downside risk. Fund managers prioritize these criteria because, amid heightened economic cycle volatility and policy uncertainty, high-valuation or concept-driven assets are prone to sharp corrections. In contrast, companies with stable earnings, low debt levels, and robust free cash flow tend to demonstrate greater resilience even during market downturns. Moreover, margin of safety isn’t just about price—it also involves comprehensive assessments of industry outlook, management quality, and corporate governance. By concentrating on high-certainty, high-quality assets and entering positions at reasonable or undervalued prices, fund managers aim to achieve consistent long-term returns while controlling drawdowns. Although this approach may underperform high-beta stocks in bull markets, it typically shows greater resilience in volatile or bear markets, aligning well with the stringent risk-control requirements of long-term institutional capital such as pension and insurance funds.
在当前复杂多变的市场环境中，越来越多的基金经理将投资重心转向‘确定性’与‘安全边际’。所谓‘确定性’，指的是企业盈利模式清晰、行业地位稳固、未来现金流可预测性强；而‘安全边际’则源于价值投资理念，强调以显著低于内在价值的价格买入资产，以降低潜在亏损风险。基金经理之所以重视这两点，是因为在经济周期波动加剧、政策不确定性上升的背景下，高估值或概念驱动型资产容易遭遇大幅回调。相比之下，具备稳定盈利能力、低负债率和良好自由现金流的企业，即使在市场低迷期也能展现出较强的抗风险能力。此外，安全边际不仅体现在价格层面，也包括对行业前景、管理层能力和公司治理结构的综合评估。通过聚焦确定性高的优质资产，并在合理甚至低估价位布局，基金经理力求在控制回撤的同时实现长期稳健回报。这种策略虽可能在牛市中短期跑输高弹性品种，但在震荡市或熊市中往往更具韧性，契合长期资金如养老金、保险资金等对风险控制的严苛要求。
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