CITIC Securities recently released a research report suggesting that gold prices in 2026 may underperform those in 2025. This outlook is based on a comprehensive analysis of multiple factors, including the global economic cycle, monetary policy expectations, and the U.S. dollar’s trajectory. The report notes that in 2025, major central banks—particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve—are likely to maintain relatively accommodative monetary policies, while geopolitical risks and inflation uncertainty will continue to support higher gold prices. However, by 2026, as the U.S. economy stabilizes, inflation eases, and the Fed potentially normalizes policy following an initial rate-cutting phase, demand for gold as a safe-haven and inflation hedge could weaken. Additionally, a stronger U.S. dollar—driven by improved economic fundamentals—would exert downward pressure on dollar-denominated gold. While CITIC Securities acknowledges gold’s long-term strategic value, it cautions that short-term price movements will be heavily influenced by macroeconomic shifts. Investors should closely monitor key policy turning points between late 2025 and early 2026. Overall, gold prices in 2026 may experience a pullback from elevated levels and show weaker performance compared to 2025.
中信建投证券近期发布研报指出，2026年黄金价格可能弱于2025年。该判断主要基于全球经济周期、货币政策预期及美元走势等多重因素的综合分析。报告认为，2025年全球主要央行（尤其是美联储）或将维持相对宽松的货币政策，叠加地缘政治风险和通胀不确定性，将继续支撑金价走强。然而进入2026年后，随着美国经济企稳、通胀回落以及美联储可能启动降息周期后的政策正常化，市场对黄金的避险与抗通胀需求或将减弱。此外，若美元因经济基本面改善而走强，也将对以美元计价的黄金形成压制。中信建投强调，尽管长期来看黄金仍具配置价值，但短期价格波动将受宏观环境变化主导，投资者需关注2025年末至2026年初的关键政策拐点。总体而言，2026年金价或呈现高位回调态势，表现不及2025年强劲。
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