Li Bei’s bearish view on gold is primarily based on the strong US dollar cycle, rising real interest rates, moderated inflation expectations, and technical pressures. She argues that the Fed’s interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction policies will strengthen the US dollar, reducing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, higher US real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Additionally, easing global inflationary pressures diminish the demand for gold as an inflation hedge. From a technical perspective, gold prices may face failure to break through key resistance levels, further reinforcing the downward trend. Li Bei emphasizes that the combination of these fundamental and technical factors puts short-term pressure on gold, but she also cautions long-term investors to monitor potential impacts from geopolitical uncertainties and other risks.
李蓓看空黄金的主要理由包括：美元强势周期、实际利率上升、通胀预期缓和以及技术面压力。她认为，美联储加息和缩表政策将推动美元走强，削弱黄金的避险吸引力；同时，美国实际利率的上升提高了持有无息资产黄金的机会成本。此外，全球通胀压力逐步缓解，降低了黄金作为抗通胀工具的需求。从技术分析角度看，黄金价格可能面临关键阻力位的突破失败，进一步强化下行趋势。李蓓强调，这些基本面与技术面因素的结合，使黄金短期承压，但她也提醒长期投资者需关注地缘政治等不确定性因素的可能影响。
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