Recently, the Chinese yuan (RMB) has been appreciating steadily against the US dollar, leading to a phenomenon known as “negative real returns” for holders of US dollar deposits. This “negative return” does not mean the dollar itself has lost value, but rather that—even with interest earned on dollar deposits—the total value, when converted back into RMB, may fall short of what could have been earned by simply holding RMB deposits, or even result in an actual loss.For example, suppose a depositor exchanged RMB 72,000 into USD 10,000 at an exchange rate of 7.2 RMB per USD one year ago. With a 4% annual interest rate, the deposit grows to USD 10,400 after one year. However, if the current exchange rate has appreciated to 7.0 RMB per USD, the total is now worth RMB 72,800. Meanwhile, had the same RMB 72,000 been kept in a one-year RMB deposit yielding 1.5%, it would have grown to RMB 73,080—outperforming the dollar deposit after conversion.Experts advise retail savers to consider exchange rate fluctuations, interest rate differentials, and personal risk tolerance when allocating foreign currency assets, rather than chasing higher nominal yields blindly. While holding USD may still make sense for individuals with overseas income or spending needs, RMB-denominated assets remain a more prudent choice for most domestic savers.
近期，人民币对美元持续升值，使得持有美元存款的投资者面临“负收益”现象。所谓‘负收益’，并非指美元本身贬值，而是由于人民币兑美元汇率上升，即使美元存款获得一定利息，换算成人民币后，其总收益可能低于同期人民币存款，甚至出现实际亏损。例如，若某储户一年前以1美元兑7.2元人民币的汇率存入1万美元，一年后美元存款年利率为4%，本息合计10,400美元。但若当前汇率已升至1美元兑7.0元人民币，则折合人民币为72,800元，而当初投入的本金折合人民币为72,000元，表面看似略有盈利。然而，若同期人民币一年期定存利率为1.5%，72,000元人民币可获得1,080元利息，总额达73,080元，反而高于美元存款换算后的金额。因此，在人民币升值背景下，美元存款的实际收益可能为负。专家建议，普通储户在配置外币资产时，应综合考虑汇率波动、利率差异及自身风险承受能力，避免盲目追逐高息外币存款。对于有跨境消费需求或收入的人群，适当持有美元仍有其合理性；但对大多数居民而言，人民币资产仍是更稳妥的选择。
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