China’s first refined oil price adjustment of 2024, effective at 24:00 on January 17, was officially suspended—meaning gasoline and diesel prices remain unchanged. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced the decision after determining that the fluctuation in international crude oil prices during the previous pricing cycle failed to meet the domestic adjustment threshold of 50 yuan per ton. Although geopolitical tensions—such as conflicts in the Middle East—briefly pushed global oil prices higher, weak global demand and rising U.S. crude inventories have capped upward momentum, resulting in limited overall volatility. Under China’s ‘Petroleum Price Administration Measures,’ domestic fuel prices are not adjusted if the 10-day moving average change in international crude prices remains below the 50-yuan-per-ton trigger. This suspension means consumers will not face higher fuel costs in the short term and reflects the current relative stability of global oil markets. Market analysts anticipate continued uncertainty in the next pricing cycle if international crude prices remain volatile in the coming weeks.
2024年首次成品油调价于1月17日24时正式生效，但国家发改委宣布本轮调价‘搁浅’，即汽、柴油价格维持不变。这是由于在上一计价周期内，国际原油价格变动幅度未达到国内成品油价格调整机制所设定的50元/吨调价门槛。尽管近期地缘政治紧张局势（如中东冲突）一度推高国际油价，但全球需求疲软及美国库存增加等因素又对油价形成压制，导致整体波动幅度有限。根据我国《石油价格管理办法》，当国际市场原油连续10个工作日移动平均价格变化幅度低于每吨50元时，国内成品油价格不作调整。此次搁浅意味着消费者在短期内加油成本不会上升，也反映出当前国际油价处于相对平稳区间。市场普遍预计，若未来几周国际原油走势继续震荡，下一轮调价仍存在较大不确定性。
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