Recently, experts have predicted that China’s carbon market price could surpass RMB 1,000 per ton in the future. This forecast has drawn significant attention, reflecting market expectations of stricter climate policies and tighter carbon allowance allocations as China pursues its carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. The national carbon emissions trading system was officially launched in 2021, initially covering the power sector, with plans to gradually include high-emission industries such as steel, cement, and chemicals. As emission reduction pressures intensify, allowance allocation mechanisms improve, and carbon finance instruments develop, carbon prices are expected to rise steadily. Experts note that a price of RMB 1,000 per ton would significantly incentivize corporate emission reductions, spur investment in green and low-carbon technologies, and accelerate the transition toward a cleaner energy mix. However, some analysts caution that a sharp short-term price increase could raise costs for energy-intensive industries, necessitating supportive policies to ensure a smooth transition. Overall, a moderate and rational rise in carbon prices is a crucial market-based tool for China to achieve its ‘dual carbon’ goals and contribute a Chinese approach to global climate governance.
近日，有专家预测中国碳市场价格未来可能突破每吨1000元人民币。这一观点引发了广泛关注，反映出市场对中国碳达峰、碳中和目标下政策趋严和碳配额收紧的预期。目前，全国碳排放权交易市场于2021年正式启动，初期覆盖电力行业，未来将逐步纳入钢铁、水泥、化工等高排放行业。随着减排压力加大、配额分配机制优化以及碳金融工具的发展，碳价有望稳步上升。专家指出，若碳价达到每吨1000元，将显著提升企业减排动力，推动绿色低碳技术投资，并加速能源结构转型。不过，也有分析认为，短期内碳价大幅上涨可能对部分高耗能企业造成成本压力，需配套政策支持以实现平稳过渡。总体来看，碳价合理上涨是中国实现‘双碳’目标的重要市场化手段，也将为全球气候治理提供中国方案。
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