Recently, CITIC Securities released a research report suggesting that China’s electricity market may reach a critical inflection point around 2028. This forecast is based on a comprehensive analysis of multiple factors: on one hand, the ongoing pursuit of China’s ‘dual carbon’ goals (peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality) is driving rapid growth in renewable energy capacity, significantly increasing the share of wind and solar power in the country’s electricity mix. On the other hand, deepening electricity market reforms—including the expansion of spot market pilots, improvements to ancillary service mechanisms, and exploration of capacity pricing—are gradually shifting the sector from administratively set tariffs toward market-driven pricing. CITIC Securities argues that by around 2028, the mismatch between the intermittency of renewable generation and the grid’s flexibility will intensify, potentially triggering a structural shift in supply-demand dynamics. At that point, the economic value of electricity could be re-evaluated, and flexible resources—such as pumped hydro storage, gas-fired power, and energy storage systems—are likely to command higher market premiums. Moreover, real-time electricity prices will more accurately reflect supply and demand, enabling better resource allocation. Thus, 2028 may mark a pivotal transition from quantitative growth to qualitative transformation in China’s electricity market, with profound implications for utilities, investors, and the broader energy ecosystem.
近日，中信证券发布研究报告指出，中国电力市场或将在2028年迎来关键拐点。该判断主要基于多重因素的综合分析：一方面，随着‘双碳’目标持续推进，新能源装机容量快速增长，风电、光伏等可再生能源在电力结构中的占比不断提升；另一方面，电力市场化改革不断深化，包括现货市场试点扩大、辅助服务机制完善以及容量电价机制探索等，正逐步推动电力从‘计划电’向‘市场电’转型。中信证券认为，到2028年前后，新能源出力的波动性与电力系统调节能力之间的矛盾将更加突出，届时电力供需格局可能发生结构性变化，电量价值有望重估，具备灵活调节能力的电源（如抽水蓄能、燃气发电）及储能设施将获得更高市场溢价。此外，电力现货价格信号将更真实反映供需关系，引导资源优化配置。因此，2028年可能成为电量市场由量变转向质变的重要时间节点，对电力企业、投资者及相关产业链具有深远影响。
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