Recently, polysilicon production schedules in the upstream segment of the photovoltaic (PV) supply chain have seen only modest reductions. Although some polysilicon producers have slightly curtailed output due to high inventory levels and persistently low prices, the overall cutback remains limited. Most manufacturers continue operating at baseline capacity, resulting in stable supply and only a mild market impact.Meanwhile, prices for solar cells—the midstream segment—continue to rise. This trend is primarily driven by recovering demand from downstream module makers, accelerated deployment of end-market projects, and structural shortages caused by the ramp-up of high-efficiency N-type cell capacity. In particular, the rapid adoption of advanced technologies like TOPCon has intensified supply-demand imbalances for high-efficiency cells, pushing transaction prices higher. Additionally, vertically integrated manufacturers are prioritizing internal usage over external sales, further tightening market availability.Overall, while limited polysilicon production adjustments offer little support to cost structures, strong demand and supply constraints in the cell segment continue to fuel upward price momentum in the near term. Market participants should closely monitor signs of polysilicon price stabilization and the pace of cell technology transitions to better anticipate shifts in profit distribution across the PV value chain.
近期，光伏产业链上游的多晶硅环节排产虽有小幅下调，但减量幅度有限。受制于高库存压力与价格持续低迷，部分硅料企业选择适度控制产出节奏，以缓解供需失衡局面。然而，由于多数厂商仍维持基本运行负荷，整体供应并未出现明显收缩，因此对市场影响相对温和。与此同时，中游电池片环节价格继续上涨。这一趋势主要受益于下游组件需求回暖、终端项目启动加速，以及N型高效电池产能爬坡带来的结构性紧缺。尤其在TOPCon等新技术路线快速渗透的背景下，高效电池片供不应求的局面进一步推高其成交价格。此外，部分一体化厂商优先保障自用需求，也减少了外售量，加剧了市场紧张情绪。综合来看，尽管上游多晶硅排产调整有限，难以对成本端形成显著支撑，但中游电池片凭借强劲需求和结构性供给缺口，短期内价格仍有上行动力。未来需密切关注硅料价格企稳信号及电池技术迭代节奏，以判断产业链利润分配格局的演变方向。
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