Faced with the prospect of Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House, Europe finds itself in unprecedented strategic uncertainty. This anxiety stems from a triple blow: First, Trump has consistently questioned NATO’s value and repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the alliance, alarming European nations that rely on U.S. security guarantees. Second, his ‘America First’ trade policy—marked by tariffs on EU goods and trade wars—has undermined the foundation of transatlantic economic cooperation. Third, Trump’s ambiguous stance toward Russia, including public praise for Vladimir Putin and weakening Western unity on Russia-related issues, has left Europe more isolated in confronting geopolitical challenges. These three pressures not only shake the trust and collaboration mechanisms built over decades between Europe and the U.S., but also force Europe to confront the risks of over-reliance on American-led security and diplomatic frameworks. In response, the EU is accelerating efforts toward strategic autonomy—bolstering defense integration, pursuing energy independence, and deepening multilateral diplomacy. Yet amid internal divisions and external uncertainties, this transition remains fraught with difficulty. As the possibility of Trumpism’s resurgence looms, Europe is both anxious and alert, struggling to chart a middle path that safeguards its interests without fully alienating the United States.
面对特朗普可能重返白宫的前景，欧洲正陷入前所未有的战略彷徨。这种不安主要源于三重打击：首先，特朗普一贯质疑北约的价值，曾多次威胁退出该联盟，令依赖美国安全保障的欧洲国家深感不安；其次，他在贸易政策上奉行“美国优先”，对欧盟加征关税、挑起贸易战，破坏了跨大西洋经济合作的基础；第三，特朗普对俄罗斯态度暧昧，曾公开赞扬普京，并削弱西方对俄统一立场，使欧洲在应对地缘政治挑战时更显孤立。这三重压力不仅动摇了欧美数十年来建立的信任与协作机制，也让欧洲意识到过度依赖美国的安全与外交体系存在巨大风险。因此，欧盟正加速推进战略自主，包括加强防务一体化、推动能源独立和深化多边外交。然而，在内部分歧与外部不确定性交织的背景下，欧洲的转型之路仍充满挑战。面对特朗普主义的回归可能，欧洲既焦虑又警醒，正在艰难寻找一条既能维护自身利益、又不至于彻底疏远美国的中间道路。
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