Recently, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe stated publicly that, given the current environment of gradually easing inflationary pressures alongside persistent economic weakness, the Bank should adopt a gradual and cautious approach to interest rate cuts. He emphasized that although inflation has retreated from its peak and is nearing the 2% target, the labor market remains tight and wage growth stays elevated—factors that could pose upside risks to inflation. Therefore, monetary policy adjustments must avoid haste to prevent a resurgence of inflation.Cunliffe noted that the UK’s economic recovery remains fragile, with consumer spending and business investment still constrained by the high-interest-rate environment. Cutting rates too early or too quickly could undermine the central bank’s credibility in fighting inflation, while delaying action excessively might exacerbate economic downturn risks. He thus advocates a ‘data-dependent’ strategy, carefully assessing the pace of rate cuts at each policy meeting based on the latest economic indicators.This stance reflects a cautious consensus within the Bank of England regarding the interest rate path and aligns with the recent emphasis on ‘gradualism’ by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Markets widely expect the UK to begin its rate-cutting cycle in the second half of this year, albeit at a notably slower pace than other major economies.
近日，英国央行副行长乔恩·坎利夫（Jon Cunliffe）公开表示，面对当前通胀压力逐步缓解但经济仍显疲软的形势，英央行应采取渐进、谨慎的方式推进降息。他强调，尽管通胀已从峰值回落并趋近2%的目标水平，但劳动力市场依然紧张，薪资增长维持高位，这可能对通胀构成上行风险。因此，货币政策调整需避免操之过急，以免引发通胀反弹。坎利夫指出，英国经济复苏基础尚不牢固，消费者支出和企业投资信心仍受高利率环境制约。若过早或过快降息，可能削弱央行抗击通胀的信誉；但若行动过于迟缓，则可能加剧经济下行压力。因此，他主张采取“数据依赖”策略，在每次政策会议中根据最新经济指标审慎评估降息节奏。这一表态反映出英央行内部在利率路径上的谨慎共识，也与美联储、欧洲央行近期强调“渐进主义”的立场相呼应。市场普遍预期，英国或将在今年下半年开启降息周期，但步伐将明显慢于其他主要经济体。
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