CITIC Securities recently released its report titled ‘Outlook on A-Share Market Liquidity in 2026,’ offering a systematic analysis of the supply-demand dynamics of capital in China’s A-share market over the next two years. The report notes that with a mild domestic economic recovery, ongoing capital market reforms, and a gradual rebound in foreign investors’ allocation demand, the overall liquidity environment for A-shares in 2026 is expected to be ‘stable with incremental improvement.’ On one hand, the trend of household asset allocation shifting toward equities is likely to strengthen, supporting steady inflows from long-term institutional investors such as mutual funds and insurance companies. On the other hand, IPO and refinancing activities are anticipated to become more rational, while pressure from restricted share unlocks will ease marginally, improving market supply-demand balance. Moreover, the report highlights that a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, coupled with a stabilized RMB exchange rate, could significantly boost foreign capital flows into A-shares. Overall, CITIC Securities expects the A-share liquidity environment in 2026 to be more favorable than in 2024–2025, providing solid support for the market—though structural divergence remains a concern. Investors are advised to focus on high-dividend, low-valuation, and fundamentally strong quality assets.
中信建投证券近期发布《2026年A股资金面展望》报告，对A股市场未来两年的资金供需格局进行了系统性分析。报告指出，随着国内经济温和复苏、资本市场改革持续推进，以及外资配置需求逐步回升，2026年A股整体资金面有望呈现“稳中有进”的态势。一方面，居民资产配置向权益类资产转移的趋势将持续强化，公募基金、保险资金等长期资金有望稳步流入；另一方面，IPO与再融资节奏将趋于理性，限售股解禁压力亦将边际缓解，有助于改善市场供需平衡。此外，报告强调，若美联储货币政策转向宽松，叠加人民币汇率企稳，将显著提升境外资金对A股的配置意愿。总体来看，中信建投认为2026年A股资金环境将优于2024-2025年，为市场提供有力支撑，但结构性分化仍需关注，建议投资者聚焦高股息、低估值及具备核心竞争力的优质资产。
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