Recently, China Securities Co., Ltd. (CSC) released a research report indicating that the traditional ‘year-end rally’ in China’s A-share market may undergo structural changes. The so-called ‘year-end rally’ typically refers to a seasonal uptrend from December to the first quarter of the following year, driven by policy expectations, loose liquidity, and positive earnings previews. However, CSC suggests this year’s rally could take on new characteristics: on one hand, a slower pace of macroeconomic recovery and heightened external uncertainties have led to more cautious market sentiment; on the other, policy support is increasingly focused on high-quality development sectors such as technological self-reliance, advanced manufacturing, and green transformation, resulting in a structural shift in capital flows. Consequently, the rally may no longer be broad-based but instead centered around policy-driven themes and high-growth sectors like artificial intelligence, new energy, and semiconductors. Moreover, the rising share of institutional investors and a more rational market style have dampened short-term speculative behavior. CSC advises investors to focus on core assets with solid fundamentals and policy tailwinds, avoid chasing short-term highs, and prioritize medium- to long-term positioning.
近期，中信建投证券发布研报指出，A股市场传统的‘跨年行情’可能出现结构性变化。所谓‘跨年行情’，通常指每年12月至次年一季度期间，A股受政策预期、资金面宽松及年报预增等因素推动而出现的阶段性上涨。然而，中信建投认为，今年这一行情或将呈现新的特征：一方面，宏观经济复苏节奏放缓、外部环境不确定性增加，使得市场整体风险偏好趋于谨慎；另一方面，政策发力方向更加聚焦于科技自立、高端制造和绿色转型等高质量发展领域，导致资金流向发生结构性偏移。因此，跨年行情可能不再表现为全面普涨，而是围绕政策主线和景气赛道展开，如人工智能、新能源、半导体等板块更受青睐。此外，机构投资者占比提升、市场风格趋于理性，也使得短期博弈情绪减弱。中信建投建议投资者关注具备业绩支撑和政策催化的核心资产，避免盲目追高，注重中长期布局。
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