In recent years, U.S.-EU relations have faced multiple challenges, sparking widespread debate over whether the transatlantic alliance is heading toward a split. On the surface, both sides remain aligned on core values, democratic institutions, and security interests, with NATO cooperation still robust. However, deeper divergences are emerging. Economically, the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act has been perceived by Europe as protectionist, undermining European companies’ competitiveness. Strategically, Europe is increasingly emphasizing ‘strategic autonomy,’ seeking to reduce reliance on the U.S., particularly in defense and energy. Diplomatically, while both share concerns about China, they differ in approach—Europe favors ‘de-risking’ rather than ‘decoupling.’ Moreover, political polarization in the U.S. and its unpredictable stance toward allies have eroded European trust. Despite these tensions, shared interests in countering Russian aggression and upholding the global order make a full rupture unlikely in the near term. The future of U.S.-EU relations will likely be characterized by ‘coopetition’—a mix of cooperation and friction, but not a complete breakup.
近年来，美欧关系面临多重挑战，引发外界对其是否走向分裂的广泛讨论。表面上看，双方在价值观、民主制度和安全利益上仍高度一致，北约框架下的合作也依然稳固。然而，深层次的分歧正逐渐显现。经济上，美国推行的《通胀削减法案》被欧洲视为贸易保护主义，损害了欧洲企业的竞争力；战略上，欧洲日益强调‘战略自主’，希望减少对美依赖，尤其在防务和能源领域；外交上，欧美对华政策虽有共识，但在具体策略上存在温差，欧洲更倾向于‘去风险’而非‘脱钩’。此外，美国国内政治极化及对盟友态度的不确定性，也削弱了欧洲对美信任。尽管如此，美欧在应对俄罗斯威胁、维护全球秩序等方面仍有共同利益，短期内全面分裂可能性较低。未来关系更可能呈现‘竞合共存’——既有合作，也有摩擦，但不至于彻底分道扬镳。
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